Rookie running backs are the new on-base percentage
Judging by Adrian Peterson’s ESPN.com average draft position (58.4), a lot of people didn’t expect the 2007 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year to accumulate 1300-plus rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns his rookie campaign. Similarly, Bills rookie running back Marshawn Lynch (39.9 average draft position) finished his rookie season with more than 1100 yards and 7 touchdowns.
The lesson? While fantasy owners should be wary of rookie receivers and stay away from rookie quarterbacks, rookie running backs have become a worthwhile risk.
In the past four drafts, there have been 12 running backs taken in the first round–Lynch, Peterson, Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, DeAngelo Williams, Joseph Addai, Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams, Cedric Benson, Steven Jackson, Chris Perry and Kevin Jones. Excluding Perry (who only had two carries his rookie year), those backs averaged 862 yards and five touchdowns. When you take into account that Benson only had 272 rushing yards with no touchdowns and Bush spent much of his rookie season at wide receiver, those stats are even more impressive.
The message here is instead of considering the top rookie running backs in rounds three through five (where Peterson and Lynch were taken on average), for the most part these backs have been worthy of late first-round or second-round picks. Oh, and stay away from Cedric Benson.
Undoubtedly this means Darren McFadden will be, and should be, on of the top 10 to 15 running backs taken in next years’ fantasy drafts (What? Too early?). Consider yourself warned.
Tags: Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden, Fantasy Football, Marshawn Lynch, running backs
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[...] -Looks like Darren McFadden is skipping his senior year at Arkansas. It’s way too early to say this, but he’s going to be an impact fantasy back next year. Remember, I love rookie running backs. [...]
Pingback by FSR Daily « on January 12, 2008
Just announced Darren Mcfadden to enter draft….
Hopefully the Raiders will get him..
Comment by chris on January 14, 2008
I think Mcfadden will end up with the Raiders. Justin Fargas had a great end to this season, but if McFadden is still on the board, it would take a major brain fart for Al Davis not to take McFadden. McFadden and JaMarcus Russell would make for one exciting offensive backfield. If McFadden is gone, look for DT Sedrick Ellis as a possibility to replace Warren Sapp.
Chris
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Comment by chris on January 20, 2008