5 Pitching Statistics you Can’t Afford to Ignore Anymore

By: brockforbriglio.com

How to Evaluate Pitching Statistics:

Most fantasy baseball veterans already use these pitching statistics and apply them “second hand”. But even the most seasoned veteran might find the tables and ranges I’ve included in this article useful.

One thing I’ve noticed when reading through many fantasy baseball articles, is the lack of in depth information about the statistics mentioned. I created this resource to compliment the great information that’s already widely available on the web. Next time, one of your favorite writers mention these metrics, you’ll know what they mean and how to apply them.

These statistics are skill based outcomes. If you start paying more attention to the following numbers, you’ll improve your pitcher evaluation methodology immediately.

 

1. Strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9)

Out of all pitching stats this one is most stable from year to year. In other words, if a pitcher strikes out 1 batter per inning one season, there’s a good chance it will happen the next: this is great because unlike ERA you have a better understanding of what you’re paying for. A pitcher with a high K/9 is less dependant on luck and defense, and the number directly relates to how deceptive his pitches are. Higher K/9 usually = more effective pitcher.

K/9

Quality

Lower than 5.0

Poor

Between 5-7.0

Average

Above 7.0

Good

Above 9.0

Elite

 

2. Walks per 9 innings (BB/9)

A low BB/9 signifies outstanding control and usually results in keeping opposing batters off the bases. It is important to keep an eye out for pitchers who are elite in this category to boost your teams WHIP: this simple statistic is often overlooked for K/BB ratio but it carries tremendous value standing on its own.

BB/9

Quality

Higher than 3.00

Poor

Between 2.50-3.00

Average

Between 2-2.50

Good

Below 2.0

Elite

 

3. Ground Ball Percentage (GB%)

The theory is simple: pitchers who yield higher ground ball rates reduce the chance of giving up HRs. These types of pitchers are also less susceptible to HR prone ballparks. Like BB/9 and K/9, a pitchers ground ball rate is usually stable from year to year. GB pitchers with low walk rates and high strikeout rates are extremely rare commodities. The best pitchers in the game are simultaneously successful in all 3 of these categories. Felix Hernandez has tremendous upside for this very reason.

GB%

Quality

Below 40%

Poor

40-50%

Average

50-55%

Good

Above 55%

Elite

 

4. Fly Ball Percentage (FB%)

Simply reverse the explanation in #3. In theory you don’t want to own a Fly Ball Pitcher in a ballpark that gives up a lot of home runs. (In later entries we’ll talk more about those ballparks and more importantly how to build a ballpark defensible pitching staff).

FB%

Quality

Above 43%

Poor

35-43%

Average

30-35%

Good

Below 30%

Elite

 

5. Singles allowed per 9 innings (1B/9)

Singles allowed per 9 innings is a skill based outcome according to a study done by the fine Sabermetricians over at MVN. Their study concludes that pitchers have very little control over fly balls that turn into HR’s (which directly goes against many other fantasy baseball sites teachings who use DIPS to evaluate pitchers). I would highly advise you to read the study here.

After probing for more information the author (Pizza Cutter) had these additional comments:

Indeed, it looks as though 1B/PA is a little more skill based than we thought it might be, although it probably has something to do with the fact that strikeouts and walks per PA are very very skill-based and stable.

1B/9 doesn’t come without question marks, but could prove to be very applicable if proven as a skill based outcome. This would be monstrous for fantasy leagues that use the WHIP category. If you have the inclination Retrosheet offers the data in PBP format and it is downloadable for free.

Closing Comments:
All of these statistics are essential when evaluating a pitchers skill level and if utilized properly can help you find “diamonds in the rough” who are overlooked because of bad luck.

The sites in the table below offer statistics 1-4 on a per player and per league basis in a nice organized interface for free.

www.FanGraphs.com

MLB Pitchers

www.FirstInning.com

Minor League Pitchers

 

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The idea behind Brock for Broglio is a fantasy baseball resource first; general MLB commentary second. In my opinion, there’s a lot of cross over between the strategy in the real game, and the game we emulate as general managers through our monitors. You can read more about the idea behind Brock for Broglio here. For now, I’d like to Thank You in advance for your attention; it is my hope I can earn it long term. I look forward to sharing future baseball dialogue with you.

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