Getting ready for fantasy baseball-THE SOPHOMORE SLUMP
Do you think the sophomore slump really exists? The guy in your league who’s set on drafting Ryan Braun in the first-round doesn’t think it does, but you won’t even look at the second-year 3B/LF (multiple-position eligible this year!) until the middle of round two. Which one of you is right?
In typical FSR fashion, let’s look at recent history and see if there’s anything too this. Here are the averages of the ten batters (Kenji Johjima, Nick Markakis, Ian Kinsler, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Dan Uggla, Andre Ethier, Prince Fielder, Russell Martin, Josh Willingham) who received a vote in the 2006 ROY balloting.
AB H R HR RBI SB AVG
2006 516 147.6 76.5 18.7 72.7 10.8 .286
2007 561 158.6 90.3 24.4 85.3 12.9 .283
And now for the nine pitchers who received a vote (Justin Verlander, Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Liriano, Jered Weaver, Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, Takashi Saito, Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez) divided into starters and relievers.
SP W SV K IP H BB ER ERA WHIP
2006 12.4 - 131.9 153.3 130.4 49.3 56.9 3.34 1.17
2007 7.1 - 88.9 112.1 118.1 44.1 53.7 4.31 1.45
RP W SV K IP H BB ER ERA WHIP
2006 5 29.5 91 73.3 44 18 12.5 1.53 0.85
2007 1.5 38 81 61.3 31.5 14 11 1.61 0.74
You’d have a hard time arguing there’s any kind of slump for position players or relievers. Really good news for Braun and some other 2007 Rookie of the Year vote recipients. Obviously you should still look at their first and second-half splits, but this makes Bruan, Troy Tulowitzki, Hunter Pence and Chris Young look real good next year.
At the same time, you have to be very wary of starting pitchers. Many of the guys on the 2006 ROY list were hurt in 2007, which should be a concern. Justin Verlander was good, but he wasn’t necessarily much better in 2007. This speaks poorly for Brian Bannister, Kyle Kendrick and, most importantly, Daisuke Matsuzaka.
Tags: Brian Bannister, Chris Young, Daisuke Matsuzaka, fantsy baseball, Hunter Pence, Justin Verlander, Kyle Kendrick, sophomore slump, Troy Tulowitzki
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[...] already established there is no sophomore slump for offensive players, so you shouldn’t worry about Braun’s youth. His 2007 162-game stats are astounding - [...]
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