Getting ready for fantasy baseball-First Basemen
While first base is often the deepest position in fantasy baseball, there can be a lot of pressure in that distinction. If you wait too long and get stuck with Todd Helton or Kevin Youkilis, you’ll spend the entire season trying to find another source of home runs. Then again, if you take Albert Pujols in the first round and he only gives you 32 homers and the Cardinals offense struggles, you’ll wonder why you didn’t wait a couple of rounds to fill you first base spot. Regardless of what you decide to do, go into the draft with a plan. Either use an early pick on a safe, consistent guy or wait until round ten and get ready to platoon.
No Doubt Starters-
Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
Last year was uninspiring (.327, 32, 103) and the Cardinals did little to bolster an anemic offense (11th in the NL in runs) this off-season. But it doesn’t get safer than Pujols and as long as his elbow in fully healed, his home run total should rise as well. He’s a first-round lock, probably top five.
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
I’d take Howard over Fielder because of his experience advantage. Besides, Howard has 105 homers in two years which makes me worry less about last years poor average (.268). He’s a late first or early second-round pick.
Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
Clearly the top fantasy first baseman last year, Fielder is only 23-years-old, meaning it’s somehow possible he’ll get better. I have a feeling he struggle a little, but there’s no way he hits less than 40 home runs.
Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
This may be the year Berkman becomes an everyday first baseman, but he’ll still have OF eligibility giving him a boost in value. Oh yeah, and then there’s the fact that he’s a career .300 hitter with 259 homers on his resume. Not bad for a guy who may slip to the third round.
Mark Teixeira, Atlanta Braves
I don’t know if Tex will ever hit 40 home runs again (he had 43 in 2005) and I’m afraid his name value has surpassed his actual fantasy value. Still, he does seem likely to hit at least 30 HR and contribute 100 RBI, so that makes him a second or third-round pick.
Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
Morneau will give you the same numbers as Teixeira and will be taken a round or two later. People must hate Canadians.
Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs
It’s not that I don’t like Derrek Lee, it’s just that people can’t forget that he hit 46 home runs in 2005 and they keep on expecting him to do it again. He won’t. He’s a great hitter for average, but the power isn’t there anymore. I guarantee he will be drafted two rounds before he should, so stay away.
Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres
Gonzalez continues to improve every year, but you wonder if the 26-year-old will get much better. He plays his home games in San Diego, which severely hurts his power numbers (10 HRs at home, 20 on the road in 2007), but he’s probably worth a sixth-round pick.
Carlos Guillen, Detroit Tigers
The former shortstop will be the Tigers first sacker this year, so his multiple-position eligibility means he’ll probably go in the top five rounds. Still, while .296, 21, 102 is fantastic for a shortstop, it’s not as great for a first baseman.
Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox
Konerko still has great power, but he can’t hit .259 again and maintain top fantasy status. I have a feeling that he’ll hit closer to .300 in 2008, but I also have a feeling the White Sox will be a disaster. He’ll go somewhere from the seventh-to-ninth rounds.
Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Pena was the waiver-wire stud of 2007, hitting 46 homers. The Rays are also his sixth major league team and he’s never shown that kind of power at anytime before in his career. As long as he keeps his average around .280, though, he’ll be worth an eighth-round pick.
Platooners-
Ryan Garko, Cleveland Indians
The issue with Garko is if he’ll get the playing time. Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner will both see some time at first, hurting this 27-year-old’s value. He was pretty good in 484 at-bats last year, though (.289, 21, 61).
Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
If only we used the standard sabermatrican scoring system (SSSS). Youkilis will once again flirt with .300, but he’s not a power hitter. Also, he should be losing his 3B eligibility any second now.
Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies
You’ll love his .300-plus average. You’ll hate that he’s hit 52 home runs in 3 years and that while he has the numbers of Mark Grace, he doesn’t have his personality.
Carlos Delgado, New York Mets
In case you weren’t paying attention, Delgado was much worse in 2007 (.258, 24, 87). He’ll be 36 this year and I don’t think he’ll get any better.
Nick Johnson, Washington Nationals
Johnson quietly had a nice year in 2007 (.290, 23, 77). The Nationals lineup doesn’t help him much, but he’s a nice backup.
Conor Jackson, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jackson’s had two full years in the majors, so this is what he is. Don’t expect much more than 20 HRs or much better than a .300 average.
Adam LaRoche, Pittsburgh Pirates
LaRoche was awful at the beginning of 2007 before turning it around into a .272, 21, 88. He’s got two 20 HR season sandwiched around a 32 HR season, and I don’t know about you but I’d say another 20 HR season is more likely.
Prospects-
James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers
Loney was fantastic in a little more than half a year at the big club last year, hitting .331, 15, 67. He’s only hit 36 homers in 6 minor-league seasons, so power is a question, but he’s also only 23. He’s also played a little RF, so he may become eligible there.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
Votto is a little younger than Loney and a couple development years behind him as well. He’ll be given every chance to be the Reds starter, but .300, 25, 100 looks like his ceiling and those numbers probably won’t happen this year.
Casey Kotchman, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
There is no evidence that Kotchman will ever be able to hit even 20 homers in a season, so he’ll have to match his .325 career minor league average to have fantasy value. That’ll be tough for him to do.
Daric Barton, Oakland Athletics
Barton has shown next-to-no power in the minors, but he did hit 4 HR’s in 72 major-league ABs. I don’t think he’ll hit for enough power to be an option this year, but keep an eye on him.
Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals
According to this depth chart, Butler will play first and not DH. I’ll believe it when I see it. Butler has hit at every level, and while he may be a couple of years away from stardom, he does seemed destined for greatness.
Yankees First Baseman
I can’t imagine Giambi will get too much time there, he’s clearly past his fielding and hitting prime. Neither of the Duncan’s (Shelly or Eric) look like they’ll be legitimate solutions there. But somebody’s got to play there and the Yankees, as always, will score a lot of runs.
Tags: Adam LaRoche, Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Billy Butler, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Guillen, Carlos Pena, Casey Kotchman, Conor Jackson, Daric Barton, Derrek Lee, Fantasy baseball, first baseman, James Loney, Joey Votto, Justin Morneau, Kevin Youkilis, Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira, Nick Johnson, Paul Konerko, Prince Fielder, Ryan Garko, Ryan Howard, Todd Helton
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