Getting ready for fantasy baseball-Tommy John and Francisco Liriano

By: David Lister

After watching the 2006 Francisco Liriano I want to say that last year was just a bump in the road–no big deal. I want to say 2008 will be the year he surpasses Johan Santana as the Twins top starter (if Santana is still a Twin, that is). I want to believe Liriano when he says he’s 100 percent healthy.

But, like you, I’m too scared. More than anything, I want to use a late fantasy draft pick on Liriano, but will it be worth it?

The problem with projecting Liriano’s stats this year is his age. Few pitchers were as good as Liriano at the age of 22 and then missed an entire year due to injury.

Matt Morris was the Cardinals next big thing when he got hurt in 1998 at the age of 25 and had to have Tommy John Surgery. Morris returned in 2000 as an effective pitcher–but an effective relief pitcher. He had two very good years (39 wins between ‘01 and ‘02) before starting to regress.

Kerry Wood missed his entire sophomore season because of the surgery. He also returned to form, but like Morris it took two years. And also like Morris, while Wood returned to his previous form it did not last.

For a worst-case scenario look at Kris Benson. Benson wasn’t as dominant at Liriano, but he missed the 2001 season because of Tommy John Surgery and didn’t come back the same pitcher.

So, while I want to say Liriano will be a top-level fantasy pitcher this year, it would be a lie. If history tells us anything, it’s that regardless of what Francisco says, he won’t return to full health until 2009. You can take your chances on Liriano this year, I’ll be seeing him early in the ‘09 draft.

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David Lister is the web editor for the National Sports Review. You can reach him at chicagosportsreview@gmail.com. Go Cards.

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