Almost Nothing Beats Home Cooking In The NFL

By: FantasyFootballGoat.com

The old adage in the NFL is that you must take care of business at home and pile up wins if you want to play football in January. Not only is that true, but paying attention to who is playing where can also determine success and failure in the realm of fantasy football.

Home cooking across the league makes a big difference, so perhaps it’s more important to consider where someone is playing, rather than who they are playing. In the never-ending quest to start the right guys each week throughout the fantasy football season, most owners look long and hard at which player will face a weaker defense. But the reality is that when you want to know which wide receiver to start, the home-field edge should be considered in breaking the tie.

Consider that in 2007, home teams around the league won 38 more times than they lost. And 21 of the 32 teams were .500 or better at home. Breaking down the cumulative totals by division, all but the NFC East had better records at home.

Obviously considering the opponent, the weather or simply how hot your player is are critical in deciding who you should start, but when you are debating between which second running back or third wide receiver should fill out your lineup, you’d be wise to consider the home-field edge. Still not convinced? The numbers don’t lie.

Inside the numbers in the AFC

Within the conference, only the Indianapolis Colts had a better record on the road (7-1), while four other teams had identical records home and away — New England Patriots (8-0), Tennessee Titans (5-3), Kansas City Chiefs (2-6) and the Oakland Raiders (2-6). The conference was 28 games over .500 at home, and when you’re winning, you’re likely scoring points and that’s the formula for fantasy success.

This theory holds true for the good teams and the bad. The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers finished 10-6 last year, and both were 7-1 at home and 3-5 on the road. On the flip-side, the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos compiled 7-9 records, yet they were each 5-3 at home and only 2-6 on the road. And the woeful Miami Dolphins won their only game at home.

Inside the numbers in the NFC

In the NFC last season teams won a total of 10 more home games (69 wins against 59 losses), so success was not as guaranteed as in the AFC. In fact, where the Colts were the only team in the AFC to win more on the road than at home, six teams in the NFC won more often on the road — Dallas Cowboys (7-1 road, 6-2 home), New York Giants (7-1 road, 3-5 home), Philadelphia Eagles (5-3 road, 3-5 home), Carolina Panthers (5-3 road, 2-6 home), New Orleans Saints (4-4 road, 3-5 home) and St. Louis Rams (2-6 road, 1-7 home). Still, 10 of the 16 teams in the NFC were better at home.

A strong home record can more than salvage a team’s season. The Seattle Seahawks finished 10-6 to win their division and make the playoffs, but with a 7-1 home record, they won 87.5 percent of their games in front of the home fans.

There’s no place like home

When considering a trade or a free agent pick up, you’d be wise to acquire a player whose team is playing five of its next seven games at home. And if a player is off to a slow start for you, it could be because of a lot of road games to start the season. That said, don’t give up on a player who hasn’t played at least four games at home, cause chance are he’ll heat up in front of the hometown crowd.

Tags: ,

Corey Koehler is a blogger, podcaster and NFL fantasy football freak. He thanks you for reading his article and invites you to stop by and check out his Fantasy Football Blog at FantasyFootballGoat.com. There you will find more of the valuable NFL and fantasy football information seen here. Also, make sure you don't miss another post by Corey - or his team of fantasy geniuses - by subscribing to his all of his content for the very low price of FREE. You can subscribe to The Fantasy Football Goat by email and have this stuff in your inbox seconds after I post it or you can subscribe in your feed reader or on your home page. Either way you get the info fast and easy. Don't understand this whole subscribing thing? Check out this short video on RSS. See you at the top!

Share This Article

1 Comment

  1. [...] teams won 38 more times than they lost. And 21 of the 32 teams were .500 or better at home. In a previous post, it was suggested that formula translates to success in fantasy leagues as well. But does it [...]

    Pingback by Can Home Field Advantage Boost NFL Fantasy Stats? | NationalSportsReview.com on May 27, 2008

Comment On This Article