My Fair Brady: Draft Maker or Draft Breaker?

By: Justin Semerad

With training camps in full swing, our favorite teams all have a long list of questions that need to be answered. Fantasy football owners are also gearing up and preparing for the season, and just like their professional counterparts they face their own unique uncertainties that need to be answered before heading into the draft. Who are the number two running backs, who are the tenth round sleepers, or how will Mike Shanahan f with us this year? However the biggest question facing owners may just be where to take Tom Brady in the draft.

Currently Brady is the fourth player being taken off the boards on ESPN’s live drafts. His Average Draft Position (ADP) is a 4.8 and he is the #6 ranked player overall. So if you are sitting there with the number 4 pick — do you take him? Let’s break down the numbers and take a look at what drafting Brady early (or any QB for that matter) can do to the overall landscape of your draft. I will be using ESPN ADP player list and their project point values according to ESPN’s standard scoring system.

Let’s say we are in a standard 12 team league, you are Team D and have the fourth pick and I am Team E and have the fifth pick. To simplify matters I went to the fourth round for both teams whereby at the end of that round both teams would have a QB, two RB’s and WR. I will use the ADP list to determine which player each team will draft. So let’s start the draft.

Team D’s fist pick is Brady, Team E gets Joseph Addai. The second round sees Team E pick up Braylon Edwards and Team D get MJD. In the third round Team D selects Laurence Maroney and team E gets Drew Brees. In the fourth round Team E gets Thomas Jones and Team D gets Santonio Holmes. (Actually according to the ADP list team D would have chosen Derek Anderson so I had them choose the best available WR on the list). Using ESPN scoring system Team D projected points would be 808 for the 4 starter and Team E 865 points. Advantage ME.

Obviously a productive draft is not decided after 4 rounds; however, these first few picks can get things going in the right direction. What it comes down to is that in most cases a championship fantasy team has to have depth at RB. Of the top 10 projected QBs, eight of them started all 16 games with an average of 15.7 games played while the top 10 RBs only had three players start all 16 games averaging only 13.9 games. Fact is you can go the whole season using one QB plus a bye-week fill in, whereas more than likely you will need to replace your stud RB with a capable fill-in at least one week during the season. Add to that the fact that you will need at least two RBs in your starting line up and the lack of depth is compounded.

I have participated in a couple of mock drafts recently and noticed a disturbing trend for those teams that drafted Brady. In one draft Brady was selected seventh and in another he was selected fourth. Both teams were very similar in make up, even aside from them drafting Brady. In rounds two and three they both chose big name WRs even though there were some high end tier two backs left on the board. Finally in the fourth round they chose their first running backs. Both teams top RB’s (Rudi Johnson and Earnest Graham) are lower end tier two type players that have some significant question marks to their fantasy values. Both owners knew after round one that running backs were going to be a weakness on their team and tried to make up for it by making the strength of their team at WR. They both went on to choose a TE in the fifth round. Once again, they went after a big name instead of adding depth at RB causing both of their number two RB’s (both chosen in the sixth round) to be of tier three-type quality (Joseph Forte of the Bears and Julius Jones of the Seahawks).

Skipping Brady early will allow for more flexibility in your draft and depth at your running back positions. Both of the owners who selected Brady in the live drafts were forced to build their drafts through WRs, a position that traditionally has a lot of value late into drafts. Consequently the value of their running backs is based upon the need for other teams’ first and second stringers to get hurt and taking flyers through the wavier wires. There is value to be had in rounds three and four at the quarterback position. Brees (29.7 ADP), Ben Rothlisberger (34.1), Carson Palmer (36.2), and Anderson (47.4) are all available after the second round.

I say let the rookie gloat over taking Brady at number four and watch him cry while trying to decide if Fred Taylor or LenDale White should be his number one RB.

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Justin Semerad is a self-proclaimed non-expert in the world of fantasy football, but rather just some guy who loves playing, writing about, and discussing the game. If you have any questions, comments, beefs or compliments for Justin you can email him at cjsemerad@gmail.com. Don't forget to check out Justin's blog.

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