Houston Texans Preview

Do you think people forgot we didn’t draft Young or Bush yet?

by David Lister 

The Houston Texans 2007 draft was very telling of the franchises’ history.  Their first pick, the number ten pick overall, was Louisville defensive lineman Amobi Okoye.  While it will likely go down as a good pick due to Okoye’s potential, it also reminds Texans’ fans just how bad last year’s draft went.  Not only did Reggie Bush and Vince Young go on to very impressive rookie seasons, but Mario Williams (47 tackles, 4.5 sacks) was such a disappointment that the Texans decided to draft another defensive lineman the very next year.

Quarterback:

Probably the most startling stat from Gary Kubiak’s first year with the club came from former Texans’ quarterback David Carr.  His completion percentage in 2006 was 68.3 percent, tops in the NFL by over three percent and Carr’s career high by over seven percent.  But as with most positive stats for the Texans, it is misleading.  The reason for the high percentage was Texans offense heavy reliance on short passes that led to Carr averaging 6.3 yards per attempt, which tied for 25th in the league.  Carr also only threw 11 touchdowns, 23rd in the NFL.

In case you completely ignored the Texans this off-season — and we wouldn’t blame you if you did — they traded two-second round picks and swapped first-round picks with the Atlanta Falcons for quarterback Matt Schaub and released Carr.  Schaub has very little NFL experience (84 attempts in three years) so his 2007 season is a bit hard to predict.  He was the most saught-after non-college quarterback this off-season, so there is something to be said for that.  But because of his inexperience, Schaub will probably be one of the final starting quarterbacks taken, probably somewhere around round 11 or 12.

Another problem is that once again, the team did little to help arguably their biggest problem, the offensive line.  They signed former Chief Jordan Black to be their left tackle and used their fifth and sixth round picks on Brandon Frye and Kasey Studdard, who will both be backups.  What all this means is that Schaub will likely be among the league leaders in times sacked just like Carr was.

Sage Rosenfels will be backing up Schaub.  He actually had a very nice game last year in Week 8 against the Titans, but there’s no way you want this guy on your team.  Bradlee Van Pelt is the team’s third quarterback, and unless college memories and holding a clipboard are stats in your league, stay away from him as well.

Running Back:

This one is interesting.  Kubiak comes from Denver, a team that has a history of producing productive running backs.  Only a couple of years ago the Texans had a reasonably productive back in Dominick Davis, who had consecutive 1,000 yard seasons to go with 21 touchdowns over two years.  So it’s not really that hard to imagine that free agent signing Ahman Green will be a productive fantasy back this year.  One thing is for sure, he probably won’t last past the fifth round of your draft.

But Green is 30 years old, which is when NFL running backs start to destruct, and he has an injury history, missing all but five games in the 2005 season.  What this means is that while Green wouldn’t be an awful choice as the 20th running back taken in your draft, have some insurance.

Green will be backed up by Ron Dayne and Wali Lundy, two guys that will definitely be worth you considering.  Dayne actually had a decent year in 2006 (612 rushing yards, 5 TDs) and is likely to receive plenty of time whether or not Green gets hurt.  Lundy had 476 rushing yards last year, and if anyone gets hurt, he is a very viable fantasy option.

Wide Receiver/Tight End:

Andre Johnson is likely to once again be a top fantasy wide receiver, even though his touchdown total may never improve in this anemic offense.  Johnson led the NFL in catches with 103, but he only had 5 TDs and a paltry 11.1 yards per reception (see earlier entry: Texans love short passes).  Because of this, Johnson should be available in the fifth or sixth round.  While you have to love his upside, he’s in a bad offense with a first year quarterback, so don’t over-value this guy.

The rest of the receiving core is simply bad.  Kevin Walter (47 catches, 1 TD in four years) is listed as a starter right now, and judging by the rest of their receivers he will probably start their first game this year.  The Texans big receiving free agent signing was Andre’ Davis, who earlier in his career was an interesting prospect, but last year was really nothing more than a special teams player.  It’s difficult to say that other than Johnson there’s nothing here for fantasy owners to look at, but at this point it certainly looks that way.

Tight end Owen Daniels had a respectable rookie year last year, finishing with 34 catches and 5 TDs, but he was also inconsistent.  At best, he will be a late round pick in most drafts.  Veteran Mark Bruener is his backup, and if you want to win your fantasy league this year forget he exists.  Third-string tight end Jeb Putzier put together interesting 2004 and 2005 seasons with the Broncos, but last year he wasn’t much of a factor, and at this point nothing has changed.

Defense/Special Teams:

Mario Williams should be better and DeMeco Ryans is an absolute stud, but this defense still isn’t an option for fantasy players.  They don’t cause turnovers (only 19 in 2006, tied for second worse in the NFL) and they aren’t particularly good against the run or pass.  If Williams becomes a worthy number one pick, Amobi Okoye can contribute immediately as a 20-year-old and Dunta Robinson suddenly becomes the shut-down cornerback the Texans thought he would be, then we can talk.  But that’s a lot of ifs.

Kris Brown isn’t a very good kicker and you shouldn’t have him on your team.  He’s never been a very accurate kicker and he won’t get many scoring chances on this team.  But you know, maybe you’ll play in a league with two kicker spots.  Under these circumstances, I can understand you picking him up.