Manage Your Fantasy Buffet: The tier approach to draft management
Thursday, August 7th, 2008I love buffets! I walk in and a huge smile can’t help but be plastered all over my face. I especially love the Multi-Plex buffets. You know the type: five different sections with three food tables in each section. Yep, 15 troughs of gastronomical delights. One can look at drafts in much the same way. Running backs, the meat of the draft, are the staple to any fine buffet. There is a fine line between a juicy prime rib or dried out roast beef. Be choosy — one cannot live on meat alone. Wide Receivers, the carb-side dishes– many great choices so no need to rush. On down to the veggie bar, the kickers: if I must have one, give me a stir fry broccoli.
Fantasy football buffet: so many choices that look good upon first inspection, but with a slight twist - I have only 60 seconds to decide on a dish and once someone chooses a dish it’s gone. Actually sounds like a great way to spend an evening with a few drunken buddies on a Thursday night. “For my first pick I choose the smoked brisket”… “Hey, I’ll trade you the corned beef and twice baked potatoes for the fried chicken”… “NO DEAL! I already have mashed potatoes!” OK, sorry let me refocus here.
What can you do to make your fantasy buffet a productive experience that instead of gas pains and heartburn leads to championships, pride and maybe some cash? One very simple but highly effective tool is using a tier system to dominate your draft. For those new to the concept let me break down what I mean by tiers.
We all go into drafts with our top 200 sheets along with our rankings broken down by position. These are the basics - the must haves. When looking at the positional rankings there will be a point when the projected outcome of the players above that point is significantly better than those below that point. For example Steven Jackson is the fifth ranked running back on ESPN’s RB ratings, with Frank Gore coming at number six. That is where my tier 1 ends and tier 2 starts. I like both this year and I consider them both top running backs; however there will be a difference in output between the two. You continue this dividing through the rest of each position’s rankings. I generally have four tiers for running backs, wide receivers and quarterbacks, three for tight ends, and two for Def/ST and kickers. But why go to all this trouble…well keep reading and I’ll make my case.
Reason #1: Planning ahead
While you could quickly and without much thought develop a tier system, to do it correctly, spend some time researching those fringe players. The difference between tier 1 and 2 is, in most cases, easy to see; however the difference between a tier 2 and 3 player may be much more subtle. Ask yourself these questions: what is the quality of their line; strength of the defensive schedule (both overall and playoff weeks); what is the emphasis of their offense; are they the primary back up; injury status (or risk of injury), are they more likely to play from behind; are they an every down player or a situational player. You will find that if researched appropriately, there will be a definite divide in your tiers. Just arming yourself with this information will make you a better draft manager.
Reason #2: Take a picture; Avoid the runs
Once you have your tiers in place you will have a snap shot of where the value is in the draft. You will see that some tiers and positions are extremely deep, while others lack depth. Let’s say you reach the fourth round and you went RB, RB, QB and consequently all of your tier 1 WR are gone. For the unprepared drafter panic will set in and drafts can be compromised. Take a breath and look at your tiers. What you will see is that tier 2 WR is an absolutely deep commodity with tons of great bargains. So if there is a RB you see as a great value in the fourth round and most likely won’t make it back to you in the fifth, don’t hesitate to pick him up.
An unfortunate side effect of draft panic is the dreaded runs (also a side effect of a bad buffet). When a run happens you see players drafted well ahead of their projected value. QBs and TEs tend to be the positions that incur this phenomenon most often. Runs are the playground of the frightened and weak; you’re not weak, are you?
By the way taking a picture of your runs (buffet style) is always a bad idea…unless you are showing them to said drunken buddies.
Reason #3: Don’t play the name game; let the numbers do the talking
Tiers will force you to look at a player’s numbers rather than his names. If there was one thing I learned from GI Joe cartoons was that knowledge is power. Last year it was Shaun Alexander and this year it will be Larry Johnson. Guys who two years ago may have been draft 1 and 2 are now players that we need to be leery of. You have done the research and compiled your rankings, so trust yourself. Don’t feel pressured into a sloppy pick; let the ignorant draft LJ at number eight.
And finally…
Reason #4: Use ADP to enhance the tier system
This is where leagues are won and lost; where draft managers become draft experts. As part of my tier sheet I always add the most up to date Average Draft Position (ADP) for each player. Finding those hidden gems is all well and good, but drafting them three rounds too early effectively nullifies their value. I look at a guy like Vincent Jackson (Chargers WR) as a perfect example of this. I have him down as a tier 2 WR but his ADP is 139. I call that value…if he is taken in the 10th round or later. If he pans out and has a great year I’m a genius; if he flops, so what — I used a deep pick on him. As a reminder to myself I will highlight or bold print players that I view as sleepers.
Let’s say I am in the tenth round of my draft and I am trying to decide between a handcuff to my number one RB or adding depth at WR. With a quick glance at my tier sheet I can see how many tier 2 WR are available. If there are several whose ADP indicate that they will be available in the upcoming rounds I take the handcuff. However if the well of tier 2 wide receivers is about dried up and my running back’s ADP indicates he will be there in a later round I go WR.
Using tiers can only strengthen your drafting abilities. Let your buddies choose between the cold broiled chicken and the overcooked green beans while you enjoy your crab legs. Good Luck!
Check out my blog – ffbcommunity. I have just added my rankings and tiers for Quarterbacks along with their current ADP.