Fantasy Sports Review

If you are anything like me, you are starving for any football discussion that doesn’t include Brett Favre (please make it stop!). So, I figured I would give you an update on a little mock draft that some very football savvy bloggers and I have been participating in over the last week or so.

So far, not many surprises but round two is a pick away and there are usually a few head turners to be had. Check it out.

Oh, and before I forget, make sure you stop by each of these blogs and add them to your reader (or sign up for email updates). That way you will never, ever miss even a morsel of fantasy football information from now until you are counting your first place cash.

Here ya go:

1. Curveballs 4 Jesus: L. Tomlinson

2. Sean McCall: A. Peterson

3. Football Burrito: J. Addai

4. Pancake Blocks: S. Jackson

5. West Coast Nonsense: B. Westbrook

6. Bruno Boys: T. Brady

7. The Hazean: M. Barber

8. Football Jabber: F. Gore

9. Fantasy Football Fools: C. Portis

10. Fantasy Football Geek Blog: M. Lynch

11. Fantasy Football Goat: Larry Johnson

12. Fantasy Football Librarian: Randy Moss

I was all over Marshawn Lynch until Matt and Brandon over at FFGeeksBlog wisely picked him just before me (props to them) which led me to taking Larry Johnson.

I’m not crazy about taking him considering the laundry list of question marks surrounding his supporting staff: the line, the QB and experience in general. But he’s the best player on his team (equaling touches), an every down back (rare these days) and has a schedule filled with “projected” weak run d’s.

Add to that the fact that you gotta think he’ll be playing with a chip on his shoulder after a dismal 2007. I’ll take my chances.

When you look at the advantages of playing in front of the home crowd, the numbers clearly support it makes a difference. In 2007, home teams won 38 more times than they lost. And 21 of the 32 teams were .500 or better at home. In a previous post, it was suggested that formula translates to success in fantasy leagues as well. But does it really?

In taking a deeper look inside the numbers, team success at home doesn’t guarantee individual success at home, but it does seem to trend toward better production. In a random sample of 12 players (four quarterbacks, four running backs and four wide receivers), here is how the numbers break down.

Quarterbacks
New England’s Tom Brady had a record-breaking season and his numbers while consistent week-in and week-out, were slightly better on the road. Brady had 2,511 yards passing, 29 TDs and 4 INTs on the road compared to 2,295 yards passing, 21 TDs and 4 INTs at home.

Cleveland’s Derek Anderson was also better on road with 1,920 yards passing, 15 TDs and 13 INTs compared to 1,867 yards passing, 14 TDs and 6 INTs at home. Green Bay’s Brett Favre was nearly identical home and away. Farve threw for 2,019 yards at home with 14 TDs and 6 INTs versus 2,136 yards passing, 14 TDs and 9 INTs on the road. In Dallas, Tony Romo threw for 2,171 yards, 20 TDs and 9 INTs while away from home he threw for 2,040 yards, 16 TDs and 10 INTs.

So what do those numbers tell us? A lot actually. If you remove Brady from the conversation, the three other quarterbacks were all better at home based on a plus-minus equation of TDs to INTs. Every fantasy league gives points for throwing touchdowns, but they also subtract for interceptions. So considering the differential TDs minus INTs, Anderson was plus-8 at home and only plus-2 on the road. Favre had an identical 14 TDs home and on the road, but he was plus-8 at home and only plus-5 on the road. And Romo was plus-11 at home and only plus-6 on the road.

Running backs
Of the four running backs looked at, they all rushed for more yards and a better yards-per-carry average at home, though the touchdown totals were not necessarily better at home. Philadelphia’s Brian Westbrook rushed for 749 yards and 4 TDs for a 5.2 ypc average at home, while he rushed for 584 yards, 3 TDs and a 4.4 ypc average on the road. Indianapolis’ Joseph Addai rushed for 558 yards, 4 TDs and 4.7 ypc average at home, compared to 514 yards, 8 TDs and a 3.6 ypc average on the road.

Tennessee’s LenDale White rushed for 617 yards, 4 TDs and 4.0 ypc average at home versus 493 yards, 3 TDs and 3.4 ypc average on the road. And Dallas’ Marion Barber rushed for 519 yards, 3 TDs and a 5.0 ypc average at home compared to 456 yards, 7 TDs and a 4.6 ypc average on the road. As for receiving yards out of the backfield, three of the four players had a higher per-catch average when playing at home.

Wide receivers
This position was a draw as two players were better at home and two were better on the road.

Better on the road: Cincinnati’s T.J. Houshmandzadeh had 639 receiving yards and 6 TDs on the road versus 504 yards and 6 TDs at home. And Green Bay’s Greg Jennings has 524 receiving yards and 8 TDs on the road against 396 yards and 4 TDs at home. Jennings did miss two games at home and one on the road.

Better on home: Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald had 777 yards receiving and 6 TDs at home versus 632 yards and 4 TDs on the road. And Denver’s Brandon Marshall racked up 732 receiving yards and 4 TDs at home compared to 604 yards and 3 TDs on the road.

Other than Jennings, who missed three games (two at home), everyone else mentioned played in all 16 games. And the sample includes six players from each conference, two at each position. So while this is not scientific, looking at where someone is playing their next game might be just as valuable as who they are matching up against. It’s up to you to decide, but this method might be better than making a decision based on which way the wind blows.

With the 2008 NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, it’s an exciting time for rookies who were lucky enough to land a job. On the flip side, it can be a nervous time for veterans, even established ones. Just last summer, Donovan McNabb dodged reports that his days were numbered after quarterback Kevin Kolb was drafted by the Eagles. McNabb, who was coming off an injury but yet was a proven performer, was all but run out of town by the media as trade rumors swirled. McNabb went on to put those doubters to rest as each week his performance improved along with his health. Moral to the story – if McNabb’s not safe after all he’s done for Philadelphia, than no one is sacred. The following players will be hearing footsteps this summer.

Willie Parker, Pittsburgh
The Steelers clearly missed The Bus last season, so even if Parker returns fully recovered from his leg injury, top pick Rashard Mendenhall should see plenty of action. The rookie clearly fits the Steelers smash-mouth approach to the game, as he should become more of the workhorse in this offense. Parker will get demoted to a situational, change-of-pace assignment. Fantasy impact: 5 (on a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the highest)

Marion Barber, Dallas
You don’t take a running back with your top pick if you don’t think it’s a position need. Felix Jones is more than an ample replacement for the departed Julius Jones. His breakaway speed, as compared to Barber’s gritty, grind-out-the-yards style, should earn him lots of carries. If he becomes a home run threat, than there will be less goal line carries for the hard-chargin’ Barber. And with only one ball to go around, expect the fresh-legged Jones to get the bulk of the carries. Fastasy impact: 4

Justin Fargas, Oakland
Darren McFadden is a fast, powerful and exciting option that the Raiders haven’t had in quite some time in their backfield. Much like Jones in Dallas, McFadden offers too much potential to be brought along slowly. Expect to see Fargas in more obvious passing situations for his ability to pick up the blitz. Otherwise it should be McFadden left, McFadden right and McFadden up the middle. Fantasy impact: 4

Tatum Bell, Detroit Lions (Corey’s two cents)
Look out Tatum hear comes Kevin Smith. Who is Kevin Smith you say? Only the holder of the second highest rushing total for a season in NCAA history (2567 yards in 2007). If you are into karma - or just like to know useless sports facts - get this, who holds the all time single season rushing record? None other than Mr. Barry Sanders. Anyway, Mel Kiper has already gone on record as saying he thinks Kevin will be starting opening day AND some think Kevin’s style is perfect for the Lions zone blocking scheme. Fantasy Impact: 3.5

DeAngelo Williams, Carolina
For a team with obvious needs on defense to take a running back with its first round pick, it tells you the Panthers are serious about making changes in the backfield. So expect to see lots of Oregon running back Jonathan Stewart. Fantasy impact: 3

Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Nate Washington, Pittsburgh
I’m not sure who, but Limas Sweed should easily become one of Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite targets as the year progresses. So whether he supplants Ward, who might have lost a step, or one or both of Pittsburgh’s other young wide receivers, expect Sweed to play as big as his 6-foot-4 frame. Fantasy impact: 3

Kyle Boller, Baltimore
For a split second following the retirement of Steve McNair, it looked like Boller was going to get one more chance to prove he’s the man. Then came Joe Flacco, who Baltimore traded back and then up to get late in the first round. And it’s not just the drafting of a quarterback, but it’s the way they did it. Clearly the Ravens feel Flacco is their guy, so why delay the inevitable? Flacco should get thrown to the wolves because a good defense and a running game can take a young QB a long way. Fantasy impact: 2

Chris Baker, New York Jets
The New York Jets dismal offense should get a shot in the arm from speedy tight end Dustin Keller. The Purdue product should give either mediocre Jets quarterback a reliable target over the middle, and that might do wonders for this offensively challenged team. Fantasy impact: 2